無論中國政府是否相信奧巴馬政府關(guān)于美國樂意接受中國成為一個對等大國的說辭，中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人面臨的戰(zhàn)略選擇都是清晰的：既可以謀求地區(qū)主導(dǎo)地位并通過暴力對抗的方式將美國趕出亞太，也可以與美國開展合作并通過維持亞太地區(qū)權(quán)力均勢避免惡性戰(zhàn)略爭斗，以確保雙方之間的和平競爭。第一種選項至少在可以預(yù)見的未來無疑是不現(xiàn)實的。取得地區(qū)主導(dǎo)權(quán)從長期看或許會是中國的終極目標(biāo)，但不會被視作中國在21世紀(jì)前期需要認(rèn)真考慮的目標(biāo)，這是由當(dāng)前美國在亞太地區(qū)的存在和影響力決定的，也是因為該地區(qū)各國力量的消長變化仍在繼續(xù)界定中國的權(quán)力范圍。中國的日益強大已經(jīng)促使周邊國家采取了一些制衡行動，包括重新與美國結(jié)盟，在這種情況下，中國的實際行動以及其他國家對中國意圖的認(rèn)知尤為重要。盡管中國必須堅定地捍衛(wèi)其真正的核心利益，但是在各種外交與安全政策上（包括與他國的領(lǐng)土爭端上）繼續(xù)保持戰(zhàn)略克制，預(yù)防性地消除其他國家的制衡動機，絕對符合中國利益。在地區(qū)環(huán)境中被孤立于對中國沒有好處。

事實上，二戰(zhàn)后美國創(chuàng)建和領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的國際體系以及美國在亞太安全中的角色，為經(jīng)濟全球化和亞太穩(wěn)定提供了重要支撐。雖然中國政府對其中的一些規(guī)則可能并不滿意，也想在制定和修訂規(guī)則的過程中享有更大的話語權(quán)，但中國還是從中獲益匪淺。盡管中國對美國在亞洲這塊本國安身之地增強針對自己的軍事和戰(zhàn)略布局感到不安，中國也仍然是過去幾十年中美國軍事存在所塑造的地區(qū)穩(wěn)定的受益者。作為現(xiàn)實主義者，中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人最終還是會認(rèn)清權(quán)力對比的現(xiàn)實狀況，那就是中美兩國都不可能獨自成為地區(qū)主導(dǎo)力量，權(quán)力均衡是維護(hù)地區(qū)和平與穩(wěn)定的唯一出路。雖然美國維持其亞太霸權(quán)角色變得日益困難，但中國在崛起為一個全球大國的道路上也仍然面臨著來自國內(nèi)外的各種巨大挑戰(zhàn)，很難在亞洲奉行擴張主義政策。中國最大的挑戰(zhàn)并非來自美國，而是來自本國內(nèi)部。由于深刻而令人擔(dān)憂的內(nèi)部原因，中國也是一個脆弱的崛起國。為確保未來的崛起，實現(xiàn)中國夢，它必須首先處理好包括腐敗、權(quán)力濫用和社會不公等在內(nèi)的各種國內(nèi)問題。在中國解決這些國內(nèi)難題之前，其未來崛起前景仍面臨著不確定性。正是從這個角度出發(fā)，中國國家主席習(xí)近平才一再強調(diào)“太平洋兩岸有足夠空間容納中美兩個大國”。65 正是從自身利益出發(fā)，中國努力通過構(gòu)建“新型大國關(guān)系”來穩(wěn)定同美國的關(guān)系，而這也正是美國的利益所在，所以，奧巴馬政府對習(xí)近平的努力進(jìn)行了積極回應(yīng)。

注釋

1 "China, U.S. agree to build new type of relations", Xinhua, June 7, 2013, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2013-06/08/c_132442379. htm.

2 He Yafei, "The Trust Deficit: How the U.S. 'pivot' to Asia looks from Beijing",  Foreign Policy, May 13, 2013, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/05/13/how_china_sees_the_us_pivot_to_asia.

3 Jia Qingguo, "Learning to Live with the Hegemon: Evolution of China's Policy toward the US since the End of the Cold War", Journal of Contemporary China, vol. 14, no. 44, August 2005, p. 395.

4 Liu Jiafei, "Sino-US Relations and building a Harmonious World", Journal of Contemporary China, vol. 18, no. 60, June 2009, p. 479.

5 Jonas Parello-Plesner, "The G 2: no good for China and for world governance",  PacNet #31A, April 30, 2009.

6 "Wen rejects allegation of China, US monopolizing world affairs in future", Xinhua, May 21, 2009.

7 一項統(tǒng)計表明：“自1500年以來，崛起國與支配國的15次遭遇和競爭中，有11次的結(jié)果是戰(zhàn)爭。” Graham T. Allison Jr., "Obama and Xi Must Think Broadly to Avoid a Classic Trap", New York Times, June 6, 2013, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/07/opinion/obama-and-xi-must-think-broadly-to-avoid-a-classic-trap.html?emc=tnt&tntemail0=y&_r=0.

8 Suisheng Zhao, "Shaping the Regional Context of China's Rise: How the Obama Administration brought back Hedge in its Engagement with China", Journal of Contemporary China, 21:75, 2012, p. 386.

9 James B. Steinberg, "China's Arrival: The long March to Global Power", Keynote Speech at Center for New America Security, September 24, 2009, http://www.cnas.org/files/multimedia/documents/Deputy%20Secretary%20James%20Steinberg's%20September%2024,%202009%20Keynote%20Address%20Transcript.pdf.

10 Josh Rogin, "The end of the concept of 'strategic reassurance'?", Foreign Policy, November 6, 2009, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/11/06/the_end_of_the_concept_of_strategic_reassurance.

11 David M. Lampton, "A New Type of Major-Power Relationship: Seeking a Durable Foundation for U.S.-China Ties", Asia Policy,  no.16, July 2013, p. 52.

12 Brad Glosserman, "A 'new type of great power relations'? Hardly", PacNet #40 Monday, June 10, 2013.

13 John Chan, "China Seeks 'New Type of Great Power Relations', Beijing will not Challenge US Global Dominance", Global Research, June 10, 2013, http://www.globalresearch.ca/china-seeks-new-type-of-great-power-relations-china-will-not-challenge-us-global-dominance/5338462.

14 中國社會科學(xué)院中國特色社會主義理論體系研究中心：“構(gòu)建新型大國關(guān)系”， 《人民日報》, 2013年6月4日，第7 版。

15 Yang Jiechi, "Win-Win Cooperation", Washington Post, July 9, 2013, p. 13.

16 Hillary Clinton, "Remarks at the U.S. Institute of Peace China Conference", March 7, 2012, http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2012/03/185402.htm.

17 White House News Release,  "Remarks By Tom Donilon, National Security Advisor to the President: The United States and the Asia-Pacific in 2013", March 11, 2013, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/03/11/remarks-tom-donilon-national-security-advisory-president-united-states-a.

18 Office of Press Secretary, The White House, "Background Conference Call by Senior Administration Officials on the President's Meetings with President Xi Jinping of China", June 4, 2013, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/06/04/background-conference-call-senior-administration-officials-presidents-me.

19 "Remarks by President Obama and Vice President Xi of the People's Republic of China Before Bilateral Meeting, February 2012", http://www.cfr.org/china/remarks-president-obama-vice-president-xi-peoples-republic-china-before-bilateral-meeting-february-2012/p27391.

20 田曾佩：《改革開放以來的中國外交》，北京：世界知識出版社，1993年，第6～7頁。

21 謝益顯：《當(dāng)代中國外交史》，北京：中國青年出版社，1996年，第430頁。

22 You Ji, "China and North Korea: A Fragile Relationship of Strategic Convenience", Journal of Contemporary China, vol. 10, no. 28, August 2001, p. 396.

23 Wang Yong, "China, ASEAN Stress Peace: Summit Agrees on Approach", China Daily, December 17, 1997, p.1.

24 Greg Sheridan, "China wins as 'US neglects region'", The Australian, September 3, 2007. 

25 Elizabeth Economy, "China's Rise in Southeast Asia: Implications for the United States", Journal of Contemporary China, 14:44, August 2005, p.424.

26 陳岳：“中國當(dāng)前外交環(huán)境及應(yīng)對”, 《現(xiàn)代國際關(guān)系》，2011年第11期, 第 4頁。

27 Wu Xinbo, "Forging Sino-U.S, Partnership in the 21st Century: Opportunities and Challenges," Journal of Contemporary China, Vol. 21, no. 75, May 2012, p. 393.

28 David F. Gordon, "A trade opportunity Washington shouldn't pass up",  Washington Post, November 10, 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-trade-opportunity-washington-shouldnt-pass-up/2011/11/10/gIQA1K3t9M_story.html?sub=AR.

29 Editorial, "Hillary reinforces US-China mistrust", Global Times, September 4, 2012, http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/730902.shtml.

30 Hillary Clinton, "America's Pacific Century", Foreign Policy, November 2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/11/americas_pacific_century?page=full%23.TpQwzShztTI.email.

31 Shangri-La Security Dialogue, As Delivered by Secretary of Defense Leon E. Panetta, Shangri-La Hotel, Singapore, Saturday, June 02, 2012, http://www.defense.gov/speeches/speech.aspx?speechid=1681.

32 Jane Perlez, "Diplomatic Memo, Political Worries in U.S. and China Color Obama Aide's Beijing Visit", New York Times, July 25, 2012, July 25, 2012 http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/26/world/asia/china-an-eager-host-to-donilon-diplomatic-memo.html?_r=1&ref=asia.