注釋

1、Jakub  Grygiel, "The Return of Europe's Nation-States-The upside to the EU's Ccrisis", Foreign Affairs, September/October 2016, pp.94-101.

2、參見英國秘密情報(bào)局（軍情六處）前局長約翰•索沃斯的文章《大國競爭時(shí)代回來了》，《金融時(shí)報(bào)》中文網(wǎng)，http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001069845，2016年10月25日。

3、IMF: World Economic Outlook, October 2016.

4、Richard Haass, "World Order 2.0-The Case for Sovereign Obligation", Foreign Affairs, January/February 2017, pp.2-3.

5、Newton R. Bowles, The Diplomacy of Hope: The United Nations Since the Cold War, New York: I.B.Tauris& Co. Ltd.,2004.

6、周榮國：《當(dāng)前資本主義的現(xiàn)實(shí)困境、內(nèi)部爭論和未來走勢》，《當(dāng)代世界》，2017年第1期。

The Changing World and Uncertain Times

—The Current Trend of the Evolution of the International Order

Fu Mengzi  Fu Yu

Abstract: With the adjustment of international order and the deepening of its differentiation, how to treat the "changes" and the "unchanges" in international relations has become an important subject before us. In such a complex and volatile situation, it is necessary to notice the uncertainties and risks that may affect the direction of world development, and also see that some basic trends that have long influenced the world development have not fundamentally changed. Although it is still difficult to systematically and clearly describe the future world and international order, but as the world history has repeatedly shown, the crisis often breeds a turnaround opportunity, the world and international order may open a new chapter for development among adjustment and turmoil.

Keywords: Uncertainty, Avert Chaos, New Order

傅夢孜，中國現(xiàn)代國際關(guān)系研究院副院長、研究員，武漢大學(xué)國家領(lǐng)土主權(quán)與海洋權(quán)益協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心研究員。研究方向?yàn)閲H關(guān)系、中美問題。主要著作有《中美戰(zhàn)略關(guān)系新論》《世界直接投資：發(fā)展、理論與現(xiàn)實(shí)》等。付宇，中國現(xiàn)代國際關(guān)系研究院世界政治研究所副研究員。