建設(shè)由中國通往中亞、南亞、中東、東歐、俄國最后直至西歐的各條高鐵路線將有力地帶動(dòng)“絲綢之路經(jīng)濟(jì)帶”與歐亞大陸的經(jīng)濟(jì)整合。貫通歐亞大陸的交通大動(dòng)脈將把沿線各國的生產(chǎn)要素重新組合，在各國制造出新需求，吸引來新投資。這將為地域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化打下一個(gè)基礎(chǔ)。在歐亞大陸經(jīng)濟(jì)整合的過程中，中國可以成為東部推動(dòng)力，歐盟可為西部推動(dòng)力，俄國可為北部推動(dòng)力，印度可為南部推動(dòng)力，各個(gè)方向的進(jìn)展在中東匯合。
在推動(dòng)“一帶一路”歐亞大陸經(jīng)濟(jì)整合大戰(zhàn)略下發(fā)展西部，使其變成中國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的一極，必然會(huì)引起向西部的移民。這種移民將緩解東部土地使用的壓力，并為嚴(yán)格控制可耕地的商業(yè)開發(fā)創(chuàng)造條件。這將把開發(fā)西部的意義提到一個(gè)新的高度：開發(fā)西部將不再是沿海地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的一個(gè)自然延伸，也不再是一個(gè)單純解決地域發(fā)展不平衡的社會(huì)政策，更不再是為了維穩(wěn)而不得不采取的必要措施，它將成為中國國際大戰(zhàn)略的重要支柱；西部開發(fā)將促進(jìn)傳統(tǒng)發(fā)展方式向經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展綜合規(guī)劃的轉(zhuǎn)變，也將成為中國經(jīng)濟(jì)均衡發(fā)展的重要驅(qū)動(dòng)力。這一陸權(quán)戰(zhàn)略將從根本上扭轉(zhuǎn)過去30年來由于單純依賴藍(lán)海戰(zhàn)略而帶來的一系列經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)不平衡和社會(huì)發(fā)展不均衡，以及由此產(chǎn)生的政治與社會(huì)問題。
綜上所述，建設(shè)高鐵推動(dòng)“一帶一路”歐亞大陸經(jīng)濟(jì)整合將帶來中國西部的迅速發(fā)展。西部的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與對(duì)外開放將為中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的長期均衡發(fā)展裝上第二臺(tái)發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)。不僅如此，它還將幫助中國解決過去30年來藍(lán)海戰(zhàn)略帶來的嚴(yán)重的發(fā)展失衡問題。這是一個(gè)值得中國在21世紀(jì)認(rèn)真考慮的大戰(zhàn)略。
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China's Economic Adjustment and Rebalancing Strategy: Insight, Challenges and Strategies
Liu Weiping
Abstract: At present, the imbalance between economic development and social development, and structural imbalances within and among social sectors have become the unique backdrop for China’s reform and development. After more than 30 years of reform and opening up, China has become a major economic power in the world and is deeply integrated into the global economic system. Its influence on the world economy is constantly increasing. Due to the impact of the financial crisis, the United States will exert enormous pressure on China in all aspects and the Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations will face new challenges and tests. At the same time, as one of the major trade surplus nation, China is an important force in rebalancing the global economy both in terms of its own economic development and its image as a responsible big country. China must take both internal and external efforts to participate in the rebalancing of the global economy. The internal path focuses on adjusting the structure and the external path focuses on coordination of relationships. Only with combined internal and external efforts will China be able to truly solve the structural problems plaguing the sustainable development of its economy in a relatively relaxed external environment and further achieve real rebalancing. Looking at the development of China in the coming decade or decades or even a longer time, in the important strategy of economic restructuring and expansion of domestic demand, industrialization, urbanization, modernization and internationalization will co-develop with the blue ocean and land-based strategies of the Belt and Road initiative, the Eurasian economic integration strategy and the strategy of opening to the West.
Keywords: Economic adjustment, rebalancing, environment and society, coordinated development, economic investment and social assistance
劉衛(wèi)平，國家開發(fā)銀行研究院教授、研究員，麻省理工學(xué)院訪問學(xué)者、研究員。研究方向?yàn)槭澜缃?jīng)濟(jì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)與社會(huì)、國際金融、國家發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略。主要著作有《美國貨幣政策調(diào)整及其影響研究》《全球領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力》《約翰•桑頓在中國》等。
